In order to study the evolution trend of shoals in the Yangtze estuary under the influences of sediment discharge decreasing and human activities and the feasibility of artificial protection measures，we take Hengsha shoal as an example，establish a morphological evolution model of the Yangtze estuary based on the numerical model of MIKE21，simulate the evolution trends of Hengsha shoal under natural environment and artificial protection. The results show that Hengsha shoal will be an overall shrinking trend in the future，the development of channeling ditch occurs，and its stability will be threatened. It is necessary to start the artificial protection measures in time. After the implementation of the artificial protection measures，Hengsha shoal is overall stable，the development of channeling ditch is restrained. It is difficult to create a suitable ecological landform in a short time by artificial protection measures，and the utilization of dredged soil of the Yangtze estuary deep water channel can be combined to accelerate the process of terrain shaping.