Prediction of Three Gorges ship lock freight volume based on regional industrial structure measurement in upper reaches of the Yangtze River
DOI:
CSTR:
Author:
Affiliation:

Clc Number:

Fund Project:

  • Article
  • |
  • Figures
  • |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Cited by
  • |
  • Materials
  • |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    Aiming at the demand forecasting for the dam-crossing transportation in improving the capacity of the Three Gorges Project of the Yangtze River,we study the relationship between the regional economic development in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River,industrial structure and the development and change of the dam-crossing freight volume of the Three Gorges Project,and construct a forecasting model for the dam-crossing freight volume of the Three Gorges Project based on the industrial structure measurement of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.It is estimated that the freight volume of the Three Gorges Project in 2020,2030,2040 and 2050 will be about 161 million tons,254 million tons,310 million tons and 317 million tons respectively.The study shows that it is reasonable to use the method based on the regional industrial structure measurement to predict the freight volume of the Three Gorges Project.At the same time,the conclusion is drawn that the freight volume of the Three Gorges Project of the Yangtze River will enter a stable development stage around 2040,which needs further discussion.

    Reference
    Related
    Cited by
Get Citation

张 浩,肖金龙,温 泉,刘凤琳.基于长江上游区域产业结构测度的三峡枢纽货运量预测[J].水运工程,2019,(11):58-62

Copy
Share
Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: November 14,2019
  • Published:
Article QR Code