System-dynamics model on prediction of container throughput of Ningbo-Zhoushan port
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The Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Hangzhou 310012, China

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    Abstract:

    Predicting of port container throughput is characterized by a series of nonlinear factors interaction, which form a high-order, complicated time-varying system. In view of the thought mentioned above, a container throughput predicting method based on SD was proposed. In the model, five subsystems, i.e., environment system, economy system, harbor system, import and export trade system and the collecting & distributing system were included to consider the nonlinear interactions among relative factors. Using this model, the container throughputs from year 2000 to 2020 of Ningbo-Zhoushan port were predicted and the simulated and verified results suggest the model to be effective and feasible.

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宁顺理,张亦飞,毛翰宣.宁波-舟山港集装箱吞吐量的SD 建模预测[J].水运工程,2011,(04):58-62

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  • Online: May 28,2012
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