融合物理机制与稀疏数据驱动的泥沙输运预测模型研究
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Sediment transport prediction model integrating physical mechanism and sparse data-driven approach
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    摘要:

    针对港池航道泥沙淤积预测中传统物理模型计算成本高、数据驱动模型泛化能力弱等问题,开展融合物理机制与稀疏数据驱动的泥沙输运预测方法研究。通过构建物理引导的长短期记忆网络(PhyLSTM),将泥沙输运-扩散方程与床面演变模型中的关键物理参数(如扩散系数、源汇项等)转化为可学习变量,并嵌入床面变化趋势作为物理先验知识引导网络学习非线性动态过程。基于某典型港池3 a连续监测的1 440组多日数据(0.002 5°×0.002 5°网格划分),对比分析PhyLSTM与传统LSTM模型的预测性能。结果表明,PhyLSTM模型在全区预测中平均绝对误差为0.091 5 m,均方根误差为0.114 5 m,平均相对百分误差为0.75%,分别较LSTM模型降低了37%、30%和36%;预测误差在±0.2 m范围内的样本占比达91.74%,较LSTM模型提升了10.18%。该方法为港池航道淤积预测提供了兼具高精度与可解释性的新路径,对优化港口疏浚决策、降低维护成本具有重要的工程价值。

    Abstract:

    In response to the challenges of high computational cost associated with traditional physics-based models and the poor generalization of purely data-driven methods in predicting sedimentation in port basin channels,a hybrid sediment transport prediction framework that integrates physical principles with sparse data-driven learning is proposed.The physics-guided long short-term memory (PhyLSTM) model built in this paper is incorporated key physical parameters from sediment transport-diffusion equation and bed evolution model (such as the diffusion coefficient and source-sink term,etc.)as learnable variables.The bed elevation trend is also embedded as a physical prior to guide the learning of nonlinear sediment dynamics.Using 1,440 sets of multi-day monitoring data collected over three years from a typical port basin (0.002 5°×0.002 5°grid),the prediction performance of PhyLSTM is compared with a traditional LSTM model.The results show that the PhyLSTM model achieves a mean absolute error of 0.091 5 m,a root mean square error of 0.114 5 m,and a mean absolute percentage error of 0.75%,representing reductions of 37%,30%,and 36% with the traditional LSTM model,respectively.Additionally,91.74% of predictions fall within a ±0.2 m error range,10.18% higher than that of the LSTM.The proposed method offers a novel,interpretable,and accurate approach for predicting sedimentation in port basin channels,which holds substantial engineering value for optimizing port dredging strategies and minimizing maintenance expenses.

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谭欣扬,汪承志,赵桑岚.融合物理机制与稀疏数据驱动的泥沙输运预测模型研究[J].水运工程,2026(2):20-28.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-05
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