In response to the frequent occurrences of mooring line breakage accidents at global ports and the fact that existing research often focuses on single hydrodynamic factors or relies on numerical simulations,making it difficult to reveal the coupling effects of multiple hydrological factors on tension variation,a study is conducted on the identification of sensitive factors for cable tension and environmental risk forecasting.The orthogonal experimental design combined with range analysis and variance analysis is employed to screen environmental factors highly sensitive to cable tension changes.A polynomial response model is constructed using MATLAB software to fit the mathematical relationship between cable tension and key environmental factors,thereby establishing an environmental risk forecasting model.The results indicate that wave factors exhibit higher sensitivity to cable tension changes compared to current and wind conditions.The revealed influence laws of combining wind and wave actions on the maximum tension of mooring lines under extreme once-in-a-century current velocities superimpose with the most unfavorable flow directions.On the basis of this,an early warning mechanism using critical tension thresholds is developed.The cable tension values predicted by this risk forecasting model show an error within 10% compared to those simulated by the numerical model.